System 97
(Predictive score for acquired adult heart surgery )
Preoperative risk factors
Logistic regression model
 Bedside approximation score
eValue : 1 if yes, 0 otherwise Beta e
Age < 70 70-74 75-79 > 79
Female gender Yes No
Diabetes mellitus Yes No
Congestive heart failure Yes No
Left mainstem stenosis >= 50 % Yes No
COPD Yes No
Pulmonary hypertension Yes No
Peripheral vascular disease Yes No
Morbid obesity (> 1.5 ideal weight) Yes No
Preoperative IABP Yes No
Aortic valve : replacement e
Aortic valve : regurgitation (endocarditis)
CABG added to valve surgery Yes No
Neurologic disorder Yes No
Hypertension (> 140/90 mmHg) Yes No
Left ventricular ejection fraction < 30 % 30-49 % > 50 %
Cardiomegaly Yes No
Reoperation Yes, first Yes, secondNo
Neoplasm, active e
Acute MI within 48 h Yes No
Renal failure Yes No
Left ventricular aneurysm to be resected Yes No
Ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation Yes No
Mitral : valve replacement Yes No
Mitral : acute regurgitation e
Carotid disease Yes (uni or bilateral) No
Asthma Yes No
Failed PTCA Yes No
Substance abuse Yes No
Cardiogenic shock Yes No
Pacemaker dependency e
Cold agglutinins
Abdominal aortic aneurysm present Yes No
Intubated Yes No
Dialysis dependency Yes No
Endocarditis Treated Active No
Tricuspid valve replacement Yes No
Cirrhosis Yes No
Ideopathic, thrombogenic purpura Yes No
Blood products refused Yes No
AIDS Approximation Score =
(Help below)
 
( Definitions of the risk factors are not available in the referenced paper) Logit = - 5.1850 + sum (values * beta)
Predicted death rate within 30 days
= 1 / (1 + e-Logit)
Predicted death rate =.

 

Ref : Bernstein AD, Parsonnet V. Bedside estimation of risk as an aid for decision making in cardiac surgery. Ann Thorac Surg. 2000;69:823-8.