Initial PARSONNET  
(Predictive score for acquired adult heart surgery : Additive and Logistic Regression models)
Sex Age Morbid obesity
Male
Female		 < 70 years
70 - 74 years
75 - 79 years
>= 80 years		 Yes (>=1.5 * ideal weight)
No
Diabetes Ejection Fraction Hypertension
Yes (unspecified type)
No
 		 >= 50%
30 - 49 %
< 30 %
 		 Yes (BP > 140/90 mmHg)
or antihypertensive medications
No
 
Reoperation Preoperative IABP Left ventricular aneurysm
None
First
Second
 		 Yes
No
 		 Yes
No
 
Emergency surgery Dialysis Aortic valve surgery
Yes (following PTCA or catheterization complications)
No
 		 Yes (hemodialysis or peritoneal)
No
 		 Yes
Yes (with gradient >= 120 mmHg)
No
 
CABG at time of valve surgery "Additive Model"
Univariate analysis: Predicted probability of operative mortality = SUM ((weight for risk factor) * (1 if factor present, 0 if absent))

=
 

 Mitral valve surgery
Yes
No
 		 Yes
Yes ( with Systolic PAP >=60 mmHg)
No
 
Catastrophic states Other rare circumstances
e.g. acute structural defect,
cardiogenic shock
acute renal failure
or other conditions

(select the level of severity)

 Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
 
 
Paraplegia,
pacemaker dependency,
congenital heart disease in adult
severe asthma
or other conditions

(select the level of severity)

 Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
 
 

Multivariate Logistic Regression Model

Preoperative Risk Factors (definitions) Values : 1 if yes, 0 otherwise ( except for age and LVEF) Beta p
Age 0.054 < 0.001
Aortic valve disease NS *
Bypass only 0.038
Bypass + other procedure 0.002
Elevated cholesterol NS
Diabetes < 0.001
Catastrophic states < 0.001
Familly history NS
Female gender < 0.001
Hypertension 0.028
Left ventricular aneurysm NS *
Left ventricular ejection fraction 0.001
Mitral valve disease < 0.001
Obesity 0.027 *
Preoperative IABP < 0.001
Reoperation < 0.001
Smoking NS
Logit = -7.032 + sum (values * beta)
Predicted death rate within 30 days = 1 / ( 1 + e -Logit)		 * factors were predicitive of increased risk of operative mortality in univariate analysis

Predicted Death Rate.

 

 

Ref : Parsonnet V et al. A method of uniform stratification of risk for evaluating the results of surgery in acquired adult heart disease. Circulation. 1989;79:I 3-12.